How Do You Rate Public Opinion Polls?

Mack and Steve discuss if they find election poll results highly favorable, favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, unfavorable, or highly unfavorable.

References

A straw poll, or vote, according to Merriam-Webster:

 https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/straw%20vote

Fox News may not have handled coverage of the 2012 election as well as they could have:

Folkenflik, David. “Media Circus: Fox Struggles With Obama’s Win?” November 7, 2012. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2012/11/07/164576251/media-circus-fox-struggles-with-obamas-win

How much did Obama win by?

National Archives. “2021 Electoral College Results.” Last reviewed: June 26, 2024. https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2012

Iowa likes its straw poll, even if Mack does not:

Pate, Paul D. “Iowa Secretary of State Shares Final Results of Iowa State Fair Presidential Straw Poll.” August 21, 2023. Iowa.gov. https://sos.iowa.gov/news/2023_08_21.html

How can you tell if a poll is scientific?

Bloustein Center for Survey Research. “Assessing Poll Validity.” Rutgers.edu. https://bcsr.rutgers.edu/assessing-poll-validity/

Learn about a random sample:

Hayes, Adam. “Simple Random Sampling: 6 Basic Steps With Examples.” Updated: August 14, 2024. Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/simple-random-sample.asp

The popular vote doesn’t decide the president because we have the electoral college:

USA.gov. “Electoral College.” Updated: August 22, 2024. https://www.usa.gov/electoral-college

Here are the polling groups Mack listed:

Pew Research Center https://www.pewresearch.org/

Gallop https://news.gallup.com/home.aspx

The Harris Poll https://theharrispoll.com/

Quinnipiac University https://poll.qu.edu/

Some context for the Defense Department paying $400 for a hammer in the 80s:

Freedberg, Jr., Sydney J. “The myth of the $600 hammer.” December 7, 1998. Government Executive. https://www.govexec.com/federal-news/1998/12/the-myth-of-the-600-hammer/5271/

Learn about margin of error:

Mercer, Andrew. “5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls.” September 8, 2016. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls/

Read about how polls incorrectly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 election:

Mercer, Andrew; Deane, Claudia; and McGeeney, Kyley. “Why 2016 election polls missed their mark.” November 9, 2016. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/

Why it’s not going to be Biden:

Miller, Zeke; Long, Colleen; and Superville, Darlene. “Biden drops out of 2024 race after disastrous debate inflamed age concerns. VP Harris gets his nod.” July 21, 2024. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/biden-drops-out-2024-election-ddffde72838370032bdcff946cfc2ce6#

The Bradley, or Wilder, effect describes a phenomenon where people voted differently than they said they were going to in a poll due to the race of the candidate:

Ballotpedia. “Bradley Effect.” https://ballotpedia.org/Bradley_effect

The Whitman effect describes a similar phenomenon with women candidates. There was a study that found that the Bradley/Wilder effect appears to no longer occur and there is no evidence the Whitman effect ever did. Here is the reference, but please note that the journal article is behind a paywall.

Hopkins, D. J. (2009). No more Wilder effect, never a Whitman effect: When and why polls mislead about Black and female candidates. The Journal of Politics, 71(3), 769–781. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381609090707

About internal polling:

Askarinam, Leah. “In defense of internal polling.” February 7, 2024. ABC News. https://abcnews.go.com/538/defense-internal-polling/story?id=107003824

Some problems with polling, including the potential to suppress the vote:

Ordway, Denise-Marie. “‘Horse race’ reporting of elections can harm voters, candidates, news outlets: What the research says.” October 23, 2023. The Journalist’s Resource. https://journalistsresource.org/politics-and-government/horse-race-reporting-election/

How third-party candidates affected the 2016 election:

Jaffe, Alexandra. “By the Numbers: Third-Party Candidates Had an Outsize Impact on the Election.” November 8, 2016. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/third-party-candidates-having-outsize-impact-election-n680921

If Ohio is out, what are the current swing states?

Davis, Jr., Elliot. “7 States That Could Sway the 2024 Presidential Election.” August 27, 2024. U.S. News & World Report. https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/7-swing-states-that-could-decide-the-2024-presidential-election

What’s a protest vote?

Ballotpedia. “Protest vote.” https://ballotpedia.org/Protest_vote

Learn whether it’s misinformation or disinformation:

Bitesize. “Misinformation v disinformation: What’s the difference?” BBC. https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/z3hhvj6

What’s a push poll?

Ballotpedia. “Push polling.” https://ballotpedia.org/Push_polling

So, why did President Biden drop out? One opinion:

Bennet, Brian, and Elliott, Philip. “Why Joe Biden Dropped Out.” July 21, 2024. Time. https://time.com/7001028/why-joe-biden-stepped-down/

In case you somehow missed out on the media’s reporting of President Biden’s debate performance:

Klein, Betsy; Hunt, Kasie; Lee, MJ; Fox, Lauren; and Tausche, Kayla. “Biden’s debate performance sets off alarm bells for Democrats.” June 28, 2024. CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/politics/joe-biden-debate-performance-panic/index.html

Two guys comparing betting markets against what the polls say:

CNN. “Expert: 2024 betting odds more accurate than polling data.” Video. https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/07/13/smr-latest-betting-odds-on-2024.cnn

Who do you think will win MVP in the WNBA this season?

ESPN. “WNBA 2024 awards tracker: MVP, Rookie of Year favorites, more.” August 27, 2024. https://www.espn.com/wnba/story/_/id/40484035/wnba-2024-awards-tracker-mvp-rookie-year-coach-all-league-first-team

Don’t take Mack’s word for it, this is what polling says about how voters feel about education in this election:

Hatfield, Jenn. “Partisan divides over K–12 education in 8 charts.” June 5, 2023. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/06/05/partisan-divides-over-k-12-education-in-8-charts/

Learn about consumer confidence:

The Conference Board. “U.S. Consumer Confidence Rises Slightly in August.” August 27, 2024. https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

Protestors at a Republican event:

Tareen, Sophia; Offenhartz, Jake; Williams, Corey; and Yamat, Rio. “Protestors rally peacefully at GOP convention for abortion and immigrant rights, end to war in Gaza.” July 15, 2024. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/activists-rnc-milwaukee-police-protest-march-4a315dc5f36fc9390898301d508aee20

Protestors at a Democratic event:

Tareen, Sophia; Offenhartz, Jake; Cappelletti, Joey; and Skene, Lea. “Crowds of pro-Palestinian protestors rally and march outside Democratic convention’s 3rd night.” August 21, 2024. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/democratic-convention-chicago-protests-israel-hamas-war-ea3bc9193cc99a5c95ebfd1a42db924f

Some reasons why American media might be cautious, even skittish, on reporting the conflict in the Middle East:

Kekauoha, Alex. “Navigating the fog of war: Stanford’s discussion on media coverage of the Israel-Hamas war.” December 6, 2023. Stanford Report. https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2023/12/navigating-fog-war-stanfords-discussion-media-coverage-israel-hamas-war

A look at how one poll approached the Israel-Palestine conflict:

Telhami, Shibley. “Americans feel the need to be extra careful when discussing Israel-Palestine.” March 8, 2024. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/americans-feel-the-need-to-be-extra-careful-when-discussing-israel-palestine/

Immigration and the asylum system:

American Immigration Council. “Asylum in the United States.” January 15, 2024. https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/asylum-united-states

Immigration and the border wall:

U.S. Customs and Border Protection. “Border Wall System – Frequently Asked Questions.” Updated: February 12, 2024. https://www.cbp.gov/border-security/border-wall/border-wall-system-frequently-asked-questions

What makes a good poll question?

Pew Research Center. “Writing Survey Questions.” https://www.pewresearch.org/writing-survey-questions/

How data metrics/mining techniques are used by politicians:

Klosowski, Thorin. “How Political Campaigns Use Your Data to Target You.” April 16, 2024. Electronic Frontier Foundation. https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2024/04/how-political-campaigns-use-your-data-target-you

AI does not have to be accurate in any of its results:

Caltech Faculty. “Can We Trust Artificial Intelligence?” Science Exchange. https://scienceexchange.caltech.edu/topics/artificial-intelligence-research/trustworthy-ai

Is Texas becoming more purple? One opinion:

Barabak, Mark Z. “Column: In two decades, much of the West has turned blue. Why hasn’t Texas?” December 7, 2023. Los Angeles Times. https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-12-07/much-of-the-west-has-turned-blue-heres-why-texas-is-an-exception

Learn a little (opinionated) history about Rick Perry’s Texas Enterprise Fund:

Mitchell, Matthew and Philpot, Anne. “Commentary: Enterprise Fund gives Texans’ money to their competitors.” March 22, 2017. Austin American-Statesman. https://www.statesman.com/story/news/2017/03/22/commentary-enterprise-fund-gives-texans-money-to-their-competitors/9998429007/

Meta sells your data (allegedly):

Cooban, Anna. “Meta accused of ‘massive, illegal’ data processing by European consumer groups.” February 20, 2024. CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/29/tech/meta-data-processing-europe-gdpr/index.html

How to make a whiskey sour:

https://www.liquor.com/recipes/whiskey-sour/

Ingredients we used for an Almond Joy:

Coconut rum, chocolate liqueur, amaretto

If you want to make a Mounds:

Coconut rum, chocolate liqueur

Here are the candy bars we listed:

Whatchamacallit https://www.hersheyland.com/whatchamacallit

100 Grand (née 100,000 Dollar Bar) https://www.backthenhistory.com/articles/the-history-of-100-grand-bars

Marathon https://www.candyfavorites.com/discontinued-marathon-bar-1981?srsltid=AfmBOorLNDONOftL4_K1DObu9pym1FGHNV8sZRMCMG68hdy5HBJ8yQH1

3Musketeers https://www.3musketeers.com/

Milky Way https://www.milkywaybar.com/our-story

Snickers https://www.snickers.com/our-story

And Steve is right, they reformulated the Butterfinger:

Campbell-Schmitt, Adam. “Butterfinger Changed Its Recipe—Here’s How It Tastes.” December 13, 2018. Food and Wine. https://www.foodandwine.com/news/butterfinger-new-recipe-taste-test

Places that Steve went to while in Boston:

The Freedom Trail https://www.thefreedomtrail.org/

USS Constitution https://www.nps.gov/bost/learn/historyculture/ussconst.htm

“Impassioned Destruction” exhibit at the Old State House https://revolutionaryspaces.org/explore/exhibits/impassioned-destruction/

Anne provided misinformation; the Constitution resides at the National Archives Museum:

https://museum.archives.gov/

If you would like some history on the George Floyd protests:

National Museum of African American History & Culture. “How George Floyd’s Death Became A Catalyst for Change.” https://nmaahc.si.edu/explore/stories/how-george-floyds-death-became-catalyst-change

If you would like some history on the L.A. Riots:

Wallenfeldt, Jeff. “Los Angeles Riots of 1992.” Updated: August 21, 2024. Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/event/Los-Angeles-Riots-of-1992

If you would like some history on the Whiskey Rebellion:

Kotowski, Peter. “Whiskey Rebellion.” The George Washington Presidential Library. https://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/digital-encyclopedia/article/whiskey-rebellion

Our bad, Sam Adams did not participate in the Boston Tea Party, but everyone is pretty sure he helped plan it:

The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica. “Samuel Adams.” Updated: July 15, 2024. https://www.britannica.com/biography/Samuel-Adams

And Anne and Mack were wrong. John Adams was totally THERE FOR IT (definitely a fan):

Norton, Amanda. “’The Sublimity of it, charms me’: John Adams and the Boston Tea Party.” Updated: May 8, 2019. Massachusetts Historical Society. https://www.masshist.org/beehiveblog/2015/12/the-sublimity-of-it-charms-me-john-adams-and-the-boston-tea-party/

But yeah, other big names from American history weren’t so enthusiastic:

Roos, Dave. “Why Some Founding Fathers Disapproved of the Boston Tea Party.” December 11, 2023. History. https://www.history.com/news/boston-tea-party-critics-ben-franklin

If you want to watch the Schoolhouse Rock song about the Boston Tea Party:

https://youtu.be/t-9pDZMRCpQ?si=5ltTEu5VJb35VQjR

If you want to watch the Schoolhouse Rock song that Mack was singing without any copyright permission:

https://youtu.be/Y6ikO6LMxF4

The other critically important Boston thing that Steve saw:

Waterworks Museum https://waterworksmuseum.org/

What Mack is reading:

Jon Gertner. The Idea Factory: Bell Labs and the Great Age of American Innovation. (Penguin Books, 2013).

Transistors, a pretty significant invention:

Steber, George R. “The Story of the Transistor.” Nuts and Volts. https://www.nutsvolts.com/magazine/article/the-story-of-the-transistor

In case you didn’t go to a technical school and didn’t learn about TI:

Dennis, Michael Aaron. “Texas Instruments Incorporated.” Updated: August 22, 2024. Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/money/Texas-Instruments-Incorporated

Learn about inventions and Thomas Edison:

Library of Congress. “Life of Thomas Alva Edison.” https://www.loc.gov/collections/edison-company-motion-pictures-and-sound-recordings/articles-and-essays/biography/life-of-thomas-alva-edison

Vacuum tubes are pretty if you want to search for a picture of them on your own. If you want to know important technical information about them:

Sosa, Estanisalo Navarro. “Electron tube.” Updated: July 3, 2024. Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/technology/electron-tube

What did Alexander Graham Bell ever do?

Hochfelder, David. “Alexandar Graham Bell.” Updated: July 29, 2024. Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/biography/Alexander-Graham-Bell

In case you didn’t get the Watson joke:

The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica. “Thomas Augustus Watson.” Updated: April 15, 2024. Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/biography/Thomas-Augustus-Watson

If you want to learn about the breakup of Ma Bell:

Gianforti, Adrian. “This Month in Business History: The Breakup of the Bell System.” January 24, 2022. History Factory. https://www.historyfactory.com/insights/this-month-in-business-history-bell-system/

Learn the distinction between pure research and applied research:

 Hasa. “Difference Between pure and Applied Research.” March 16, 2017. Difference Between. https://www.differencebetween.com/difference-between-pure-and-vs-applied-research/

Learn about the cosmic microwave background:

Howell, Elizabeth and Dobrijevic, Daisy. “What is the cosmic microwave background?” January 28, 2022. Space. https://www.space.com/33892-cosmic-microwave-background.html

The more common pronunciation is conk:

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/conch

In case you didn’t go to a liberal arts school and didn’t learn about Piggy:

William Golding. Lord of the Flies. (Penguin Books, republished 2003).

Learn about General Atomics:

General Atomics. “History.” https://www.ga.com/about/history

Learn about Southwest Research:

Compton, James R. “Southwest Research Institute.” Updated: November 1, 1995. Texas State Historical Association. https://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/entries/southwest-research-institute

Learn about National Laboratories:

Energy.gov. “Origins.” https://www.energy.gov/science/history

How we made a Reese’s:

Peanut butter whiskey, chocolate liqueur

The age-old question: what is nougat?

Williams, Corey. “What is Nougat and What Is It Made Of?” February 16, 2022. All Recipes. https://www.allrecipes.com/article/what-is-nougat/

Shout-out to Toblerone:

Mondelēz International. “Toblerone.” https://www.mondelezinternational.com/our-brands/toblerone/

Get to know the League of Women Voters:

https://www.lwv.org/

A better way to inform your vote than election projection polling:

https://www.vote411.org/

And the director Quentin Tarantino is not known for telling stories in chronological order. But you already knew that.